Bowl Selection Bias

mrice — Mon, 06 Dec 2010 00:00:00 +0000

Perhaps just as egregious than the umpteenmillion BCS complains that have been lodged with little regard for human life over the past decade is the very system by which bowls are selected. Yes, it’s a free country and yes, college football is a business out to make money, but first and foremost is a forum for athletic competition that should reward performance on the field above all else. In short, rewarding deserving schools should supercede the ability of bowl games to determine their own competitors. This is not a recommendation to away with bowl ties to conferences, only a plea for bowl officials not to reach for teams because “they travel well.” Keep the pecking order of bowl games, only tie their selection to conference standings. Take the Cotton Bowl for example. On the very first day of December, Cotton Bowl officials extended an invitation for Texas A&M to square off against an SEC team to be named later. The Cotton Bowl gets second choice out of the Big 12 schools, or the first school that does not qualify for a BCS bid. Did Texas A&M have the second best year of any Big 12 school? Far from it. Excluding the contenders in the Big 12 Championship Game, as both Nebraska and Oklahoma had 2 losses entering the game, with 1 tumbling to 3 losses and one BCS bound regardless of the outcome, there are still two teams in the Big 12 with better records than Texas A&M. Oklahoma State and Missouri both finished the regular season with tidy 10-2 records compared to A&M’s 9-3 (all were 6-2 in conference play). Furthermore, Missouri actually beat A&M head to head during the season, at Kyle Field, the Aggies home stadium, by a merciless score of 30-9. Factoring in the three logical components of tie-breaking: division record, overall record, head-to-head, any way you slice, there is simply no reason Texas A&M is in the Cotton Bowl aside from a nearby fan base deprived of quality football for some time and willing to travel to see it.Reward performance on the fields not fans willingness to spend money, at least as much is possible without the playoff system. While we wait for college football to evolve past the antiquated bowl system altogether, the least the NCAA can do is regulate the bowl selection process as it currently stands to make it fair for all.

Not Just Paper Tigers

admin — Mon, 28 Jun 2010 19:52:26 +0000

With USC’s now infamous Reggie Bush debacle and the forfeiture of their 2004 National Championship, BCS officials have already announced there will be no champion for the lost season. Perhaps, in most scenarios this would be an acceptable resolution, as it is difficult to decide on a deserving one loss replacement, but the 2004 season was unique in its own right. The Trojan’s lone BSC title was a split decision in a lot of minds across the nation, as an Auburn team compiled an equally perfect 13-0 record, while squaring off against a more strenuous schedule in the Southeastern Conference. It should only be fair that the BCS crown is given to the undisputed second best team that year. Looking back at 2004, with the advantage of what we know about the players now, can we even be sure that the Trojans were better than the Tigers?Taking a glimpse at current NFL rosters, both squads produced a significant crop of talented players. Perhaps this is most evident in the running back department, where each team was fortunate enough to have two top end options. Reggie Bush and Lendale White gave coach Pete Carroll a lethal combination both speed and power. While dominating the college ranks, USC’s tandem has had mixed NFL results since. White has struggled with weight issues and posted inconsistent numbers. His running mate has proved to be a threat in the return game, but taking handoffs out of the backfield is among the worst in the NFL. Auburn’s duo of Ronnie Brown and Cadillac Williams have struggled with injury issues, but when healthy have proven to be among the better RBs in the NFL. Brown’s running ability and ingenuity out of the Wildcat formation put the Miami offense back on the map and has led to more victories than anticipated in south Florida. Williams had early success, taking NFL Offensive ROY honors home to Tampa. After his rookie campaign, Cadillac suffered a string of serious injuries, but bounced back last year finishing second only to Tom Brady as the league’s Comeback Player of the Year. Auburn also boasts an advantage under center as USC’s Matt Leinart has been a total bust thus far. While Jason Campbell hasn’t exactly shined, he has held down a starting job for seasons at a time and looks to take over for JaMarcus Russell in Oakland this fall. Defensively both squads have produced a share of NFL contributors headlined by the Tiger’s Jay Ratliff and Carlos Rogers and the Trojan’s Mike Patterson and Shaun Cody.From top to bottom, Auburn’s roster at least stacks up with, if not exceeds, the title-stripped Trojans, and by an objective account the Tigers would make a suitable replacement.

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Bowl Selection Bias

Not Just Paper Tigers